Cybersecurity and policy experts worry that if tariffs give way to a global recession, organizations will reduce their spending on cybersecurity.
April 9, 2025 By Robert Lemos
Chaos breeds cybercrime and cyber conflict, and President Trump's trade war — and its global impact — may become the latest example of that dynamic.
Following last week's announcement of harsh tariffs on top US trading partners, cybersecurity and policy experts are warning that the import taxes will likely result in an increase in nation-state cyber operations and, if recessionary forces mount, an increase in cybercrime and hacktivism. Even the 90-day "pause" on tariffs the White House called for today isn't expected to change the eventual impact on cybersecurity. In fact, an economic downturn will likely lead companies to invest less in cybersecurity, resulting in higher success rates for cybercrime and cyber operations.
Overall, the digital threat landscape is likely to become more dangerous as companies make tough economic choices, says Matt Pearl, director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
"An economic downturn will reduce the resources that US businesses and multinational companies have to spend on cybersecurity," he says. "Additionally, there is a belief in some — though certainly not all — companies that there is a low return on investment on cybersecurity because they have invested resources in the past and still suffered significant cyberattacks."
The concerns follow last week's announcement of significant tariffs on goods from some of America's largest trading partners, including China (34%), the European Union (20%), India (27%), Switzerland (31%), Taiwan (32%), and Vietnam (46%). Trump's tariff actions have caused the S&P 500 to fall nearly 19% from its Feb. 19 high, plunging more than 12% in the past three trading days alone. Markets regained some of their value with today's pause in tariffs, but more volatility is expected.